7 Comments

This is excellent. Very much looking forward to learning from your and the Greenmantle team's insights.

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The measure of a great piece is the prompt it gives to new thoughts, possibly tangential to the actual topic discussed. In this case, the mention of financial markets as predictors (poor) brings to mind the role of financial market volatility as predictor (better). In this way, information science emulates the history you describe - a rise in volatility indicates a decline in information entropy in the system and a collapse in the number of possible future pathways. At least, that's my contention.

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Fantastic introduction, sir. Looking forward to this series of publications. I have a fun question that I think will strike a chord with you.

Speaking of ‘good intuition’ and predictive statements as you mention, it would be interesting to hear your thoughts on the (I think) weird world of “superforecasting”.

While working at NASA a couple of years ago, we had Philip Tetlock come speak and introduce the term (along with his way of monetizing it with consulting services).

It would be interesting to hear your take on that approach to predicting future outcomes, and other methods such as the surge of betting futures/markets for elections and other events (such as Kalshi, Polymarket, and now Robinhood).

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Subscribed! Looking forward to all issues and posts

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Cannot wait for more. Maybe the applied history content for paying substack subscribers is aptly placed in the halls of the Green Dragon while the elite tier is reserved inside the Green Dragon at the Green Mantle? :)

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Having been a follower of Niall's writing for over 20 years, I have sent this article to everyone I know. It is a most excellent way in which one can understand what in reality, their world and life are all about.

He has been a wonderful guide to not only the past, but to that which I once found difficult to understand, while showing me trips in time to so many places that I will go and equally important once have been.

Even the name of his firm Greenmantle recently provided insight for me, to the writer John Buchon, who published a book in the early 20th century Niall took the name, and through research I found that it is another source of historic entertainment, that the movie director Alfred Hitchcock often used for his productions. Buchon clearly shows another way of thinking that society embraced at that time, and gives much food for thought as to how we got to where we are now.

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I, too, base my theory of history on R.G. Collingwood..... encountered him when I returned to school in the 1990s I have a copy of 'The Idea of History' on my shelf.

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