The measure of a great piece is the prompt it gives to new thoughts, possibly tangential to the actual topic discussed. In this case, the mention of financial markets as predictors (poor) brings to mind the role of financial market volatility as predictor (better). In this way, information science emulates the history you describe - a rise in volatility indicates a decline in information entropy in the system and a collapse in the number of possible future pathways. At least, that's my contention.
Fantastic introduction, sir. Looking forward to this series of publications. I have a fun question that I think will strike a chord with you.
Speaking of ‘good intuition’ and predictive statements as you mention, it would be interesting to hear your thoughts on the (I think) weird world of “superforecasting”.
While working at NASA a couple of years ago, we had Philip Tetlock come speak and introduce the term (along with his way of monetizing it with consulting services).
It would be interesting to hear your take on that approach to predicting future outcomes, and other methods such as the surge of betting futures/markets for elections and other events (such as Kalshi, Polymarket, and now Robinhood).
Cannot wait for more. Maybe the applied history content for paying substack subscribers is aptly placed in the halls of the Green Dragon while the elite tier is reserved inside the Green Dragon at the Green Mantle? :)
I, too, base my theory of history on R.G. Collingwood..... encountered him when I returned to school in the 1990s I have a copy of 'The Idea of History' on my shelf.
This is excellent. Very much looking forward to learning from your and the Greenmantle team's insights.
The measure of a great piece is the prompt it gives to new thoughts, possibly tangential to the actual topic discussed. In this case, the mention of financial markets as predictors (poor) brings to mind the role of financial market volatility as predictor (better). In this way, information science emulates the history you describe - a rise in volatility indicates a decline in information entropy in the system and a collapse in the number of possible future pathways. At least, that's my contention.
Fantastic introduction, sir. Looking forward to this series of publications. I have a fun question that I think will strike a chord with you.
Speaking of ‘good intuition’ and predictive statements as you mention, it would be interesting to hear your thoughts on the (I think) weird world of “superforecasting”.
While working at NASA a couple of years ago, we had Philip Tetlock come speak and introduce the term (along with his way of monetizing it with consulting services).
It would be interesting to hear your take on that approach to predicting future outcomes, and other methods such as the surge of betting futures/markets for elections and other events (such as Kalshi, Polymarket, and now Robinhood).
Cannot wait for more. Maybe the applied history content for paying substack subscribers is aptly placed in the halls of the Green Dragon while the elite tier is reserved inside the Green Dragon at the Green Mantle? :)
I, too, base my theory of history on R.G. Collingwood..... encountered him when I returned to school in the 1990s I have a copy of 'The Idea of History' on my shelf.