Trump’s Ceasefire Collapses

An interview with Rafaela Siewert

Is the ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran over? Is the memorandum of understanding dead? On Wednesday, those questions were put to President Donald Trump at the NATO Summit in Ankara, Turkey, a gathering that came on the heels of renewed strikes between the U.S. and Iran over the Strait of Hormuz.

Here, to make sense of the fragile state of the strait, the stalled negotiations in Iran, and the big ticket questions about the European alliance, Turkey, and China, is Free Press columnist Niall Ferguson. He breaks down how the ceasefire fell apart, why the pathway to managing the Strait of Hormuz is contingent on cooperation from the Gulf States, and what the new status quo looks like—plus: Will the U.S. let Turkey buy F-35 fighter jets, after it was previously barred from doing so? How have hostilities between Russia and Ukraine escalated? And what is China learning from the sidelines?

Recorded on July 9, 2026.