How the Trump Whale and Prediction Markets Beat the Pollsters in 2024

The success of Polymarket and other betting platforms in calling the election will bring an end to the era of political forecasting as we know it.

This essay, co-authored with Manny Rincon-Cruz, grew out of a heated debate at Greenmantle about whether we should believe opinion polls or prediction markets about the likely result of the 2024 U.S. election. Manny won the argument. What I really like about this piece is that it shows the theoretical reason why prediction markets out-perform polls and …